How Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Has Affected World Poultry Meat Trade
[Excerpted from report]
In 2003, outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus had a major negative impact on the global poultry industry. Initially, import demand for both uncooked and cooked poultry declined substantially, due to consumers fear of contracting avian influenza by eating poultry meat. Consumer fears adversely affected poultry consumption in many countries, leading to lower domestic prices, decreased production, and lower poultry meat exports.
These reductions proved to be short-lived, as prices, consumption, production, and exports returned to pre-outbreak levels in a relatively short time. As consumers gained confidence that poultry was safe if properly handled and cooked, world demand for cooked poultry increased. The cooked poultry share of total cooked and uncooked global exports nearly doubled from 2004 to 2006. In 2006, the world poultry industry was again under pressure due to HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, this time in Europe. By the end of the year, however, world poultry meat output had reached a new high, although, for some European countries, it was slightly below the 2005 level.
The major objective of this report was to analyze the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on global poultry meat trade following the 2003 outbreaks that started in East and Southeast Asia. The market analysis summarizes the growing demand for cooked poultry products, with attention to the growing challenge to uncooked poultry markets and competition among major suppliers in world markets.
Subsequent to the 2003 avian influenza outbreaks in China and Thailand, many countries banned poultry imports, causing a decline in overall global poultry trade, though the demand for cooked poultry recovered somewhat by the end of 2004.
World production in 2004 did not decline, but instead rose 1.6% (compared with 2.1% in 2003 and 4.6% in 2002) due to “the quick adaptation of HPAI-infected countries to global market demand, rising exportation of cooked poultry, and the ability of the poultry industry to speedily resume production.” By 2005, world production of poultry increased to a record high of 81.4 mt despite additional outbreaks across central Europe, with new trade opportunities arising for non-traditional suppliers such as the U.S. and Brazil.
As a result of this outbreak, the implications for the U.S. poultry sector include:
- The retention of USDA trade restrictions on the importation of poultry products from countries where the strain has been detected.
- Infection within U.S. poultry may be less likely because of temperature-controlled enclosures that prohibit flocks from contact with wild birds.
- Where outbreaks occur, production declines sharply, then appears to return to pre-outbreak levels within a year.
- Demand for U.S. poultry has increased after infection in other countries, offering greater opportunities for export.