ไทย

Thailand is a major food producer and the only net protein exporter in Asia, with 30% of its labor force and 18% of its exports coming from the agricultural sector in 2022. The country’s meat and seafood production grew by over 80% between 1990 and 2020, and is expected to increase a further 30% or so by 2050. At the same time, domestic demand for animal proteins is also on the rise, with per capita consumption of meat and seafood predicted to reach 55.6 kilograms per year by 2050.

Given the central role that protein plays, there’s a significant opportunity to diversify production away from animal proteins in the coming years to improve the sustainability of Thailand’s food system. However, it’s difficult to make progress on the issue without having a clear picture of the situation and what a plant protein transition would actually look like. This report seeks to do just that.

The report lays out three possible scenarios for the future of Thailand’s plant protein industry:

1. The business-as-usual scenario, where protein production continues to be animal-based;
2. The 30% scenario, where 30% of Thailand’s animal proteins are replaced by plant protein by 2050; and
3. The 50% scenario, where 50% of Thailand’s animal proteins are replaced by plant protein by 2050.

The report then examines the impacts of these different scenarios on the country’s land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and economy.

Land Use Impacts

Land used for animal farming includes not just what the animals are raised on, but also what’s used to grow food for them to eat. In 2020, an estimated 4.3 million hectares of land were used to grow food for Thailand’s animals, which is 95% higher than in 1990.

Under the business-as-usual scenario, land use would grow by 42% to 6.15 million hectares by 2050. It would also increase in the 30% scenario, but not as much — just by 13% to 4.85 million hectares. In the 50% scenario, however, land use would actually decrease by 7% to 3.98 million hectares, thus freeing up land for other purposes.

As around 60% of Thailand’s animal feed is imported, land use impacts actually extend beyond its borders. Of particular concern is feed from South America, where over 90% of Thailand’s soybeans come from. It’s estimated that soybean cultivation led to at least eight million hectares of deforestation in South America between 2000 and 2015.

Climate Change And Emission Impacts

Greenhouse gas emissions from animal agriculture in Thailand actually decreased slightly between 1990 and 2020 from about 42 to 39 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e), mainly due to a reduction in beef production. However, according to the report, beef production isn’t expected to shrink any further. Thus, under the business-as-usual scenario, emissions are expected to increase by 15% to around 45 Mt CO2e by 2050, exceeding the report’s science-based climate-safety threshold of 11 Mt CO2e by more than four times.

The report then offers a “best-case” mitigation model that assumes no change in animal protein production or consumption, but maximum effort put into making the meat and seafood industry more sustainable. This includes targets for ending deforestation, using clean energy, reducing methane emissions, and minimizing food waste. These efforts would significantly reduce emissions, resulting in a decrease to about 17 Mt CO2e by 2050 — lower than the business-as-usual scenario but still above the 11 Mt CO2e climate-safety threshold.

In comparison, taking these same mitigation measures while also including plant protein diversification, emissions would fall to around 12 Mt CO2e in the 30% scenario and 9 Mt CO2e in the 50% scenario — meaning that only the 50% scenario meets the climate-safety threshold. The report therefore concludes that plant protein diversification is required for Thailand to stay within safe emissions limits.

Economic Impacts

Jobs in Thailand’s agricultural sector are expected to decline because of rural-urban migration and further industrialization. There were roughly 1.4 million people working directly in animal production in 2020 and, under the business-as-usual scenario, this would continue to drop due to natural attrition.

In contrast, transitioning to plant proteins would actually add jobs to the country’s agricultural sector. Focusing on food-grade soybean production, the most prevalent form of plant-based protein produced in Thailand, the report estimates that, by 2050, an additional 1.23 million jobs in the 30% scenario and 1.15 million net jobs in the 50% scenario would be created. However, it’s important to note that these figures are assuming smallholder soy farming rather than large-scale corporate farming, which could limit job creation.

Besides job creation, it’s also important to consider the effects of a plant-protein transition on the wider economy. A plant protein transition would open up export opportunities and reduce reliance on imports.

Currently, Thailand creates added value by turning imported animal feed into animal products that are consumed domestically as well as exported. However, the country also imports animal products that can’t be produced at home — fish in particular as yields from local fisheries are declining. Gross value added takes all of these factors into account.

In 2020, gross value added from the meat and seafood sector was just over ฿550 billion, and is expected to increase to around ฿650 billion by 2050 under the business-as-usual scenario. Through the impacts that a plant protein transition would have on imports and exports, gross value added would increase to over ฿700 billion by 2050 in the 30% scenario. The 50% scenario would give the Thai economy the greatest bump, with gross value added increasing to over ฿750 billion by 2050 — meaning a cumulative ฿1.3 trillion over the next two decades.

Recommendations

The report also includes some basic recommendations for how Thai government agencies, food marketers, and food producers can support a plant protein transition.

• Government agencies should explore tax options to incentivize plant-based food sales, serve plant-rich meals at events and in schools and hospitals, and financially support farmers’ transition to plant protein production.
• Food marketers should display plant proteins more prominently than animal proteins, include health benefit information with plant-based products, and price plant-based products competitively with animal-based alternatives.
• Food producers should use a protein diversification strategy to meet sustainability goals and invest in plant protein research and development.

Together, these strategies can work to push the country towards the ideal plant protein scenario.