Experts predict that animal agriculture will continue to grow as countries (especially developing countries) increase their animal product consumption. This increase is expected to be particularly severe for animals like chickens, fishes, and crustaceans, who are already subjected to the poorest welfare conditions in farming. 

Many researchers have identified the trend that developing countries tend to increase their meat consumption and intensify their animal agriculture systems as they become wealthier. However, the authors of this study note that this isn’t universal (in other words, not all developing countries follow this trend). In this report, Animal Ask explores patterns in GDP, per-capita meat consumption, and agriculture intensification, aiming to identify which developing countries have a low baseline meat consumption or have plateaued or reduced their consumption despite becoming wealthier. 

By understanding why some developing countries neglect to increase their meat consumption and intensification even as their wealth grows, it may be possible to apply these lessons to other developing countries. Animal Ask hopes that this report will identify gaps in the research and suggest future study topics for animal welfare scholars.

There are several reasons why wealth tends to lead to increases in per-capita meat consumption. These include economic factors (people become wealthier and seek out animal products), urbanization (cities bring the convenience of supermarkets and Western dining trends), social factors, and environmental factors (e.g., a country may have suitable land and climate). 

The authors created a graph to note the relationship between GDP and meat consumption per capita, noting outlier countries as those that are potentially “bucking the trend.” They focused on the 10% of nations with the lowest meat consumption per capita compared to what would be expected based on their GDP. They also identified outliers in terms of countries that have seen notable decreases or relative stability in meat consumption over time, despite wealth increases. 

In terms of countries with low levels of meat consumption, the authors recommend that researchers explore Botswana, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka. In these nations, meat prices are relatively inexpensive, so it’s unclear why consumption remains low (and whether the reason is something that advocates can take advantage of, such as a policy or social trend). In several other countries — North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Eswatini — meat prices are relatively expensive, which may explain why consumption is low. However, the authors suggest that researchers explore the reasoning behind this expense, as it can’t be explained by economic crises, poor land conditions unsuitable to farming, and other common factors that drive up meat prices.

The authors also identified two developing countries, Thailand and Slovakia, that are seeing a declining or stagnating trend in meat consumption over time. Slovakia is identified as an especially important country to research, as it’s possible that its meat declines are a result of the government ending meat subsidies in the 1990s. As for Thailand, it’s unclear why its meat consumption has remained steady over time, although the authors caution that the data from Thailand may be underreported (they weren’t able to confirm).

Meanwhile, the authors also began to explore unique trends in intensification (in other words, countries that have neglected to intensify their animal agriculture system despite wealth increases). Although they found one study that revealed the relationship between intensification and GDP, the data are limited and they were unable to identify developing countries with low rates of intensification or declines in intensification over time. As a result, this is an issue that scholars may want to pursue in the future.

While the report stops short of making specific policy recommendations, it outlines promising avenues for future research, including: 

1. Exploring why the countries named above (especially Thailand, Slovakia, Botswana, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka) are not following global trends in wealth and meat increases, and whether this can be applied to other countries to slow the growth of meat consumption. 
2. Developing more comprehensive datasets to understand which developing countries aren’t intensifying their animal agriculture systems and why. 
3. Comparing different regions within a country to identify localized policies or conditions affecting meat consumption and farming practices. 
4. Understanding the acceptance and performance of alternative proteins across countries and the relationship between alternative proteins and factory farming. 

Understanding the variations in meat consumption and production methods could unlock strategies to mitigate the suffering of large numbers of animals, particularly in developing countries. This report serves as a valuable starting point for researchers keen on identifying effective strategies for animal welfare. It provides not only a framework but also specific directions for future research to build upon.