The Economic Impacts Of A Plant-Based Transition: Exploring Two Growth Scenarios
Background
Animal agriculture is a leading cause of animal suffering, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, deforestation, and zoonotic disease risk. In the U.S., preventing animal suffering, limiting environmental harm, and health concerns are all common motivators for reducing one’s consumption of animal products (Faunalytics, 2021). However, these factors may not be the only reasons to call for a shift in the public’s dietary habits. It is important for the U.S. public and policymakers to consider another argument for embracing a plant-based future: the economy.
A 2024 Pew Research poll found that the U.S. public believed the federal government’s top priority should be strengthening the economy. About half of those polled believed one of the top priorities for the president and Congress should be “improving the job situation.” In other words, the state of the economy, and of employment opportunities in particular, are key issues for many in the United States. As a result, animal advocates can benefit from having a better understanding of how their work overlaps with this particularly salient issue, and, in particular, how a reduction in the consumption of animal products in favor of plant-based products could affect the economy.
Agriculture and food production are critical parts of the U.S. economy. In 2022, these sectors were responsible for 22 million jobs — more than 10% of all jobs in the United States. Because the average U.S. diet is so heavily centered around the consumption of animal products, major shifts in the U.S. public’s food consumption habits would have considerable impacts on the agriculture and food sectors. Particularly important to animal advocates are the possible effects of U.S. consumers replacing animal products with plant-based products. However, little research has been done into the possible economic impacts of a plant-based transition.
This study provides estimates of how employment, as well as other aspects of the U.S. economy, would be affected if the U.S. public begins to switch to a more plant-forward diet. With analysis carried out by BW Research Partnership, a research and consulting firm with expertise in economics, we explore two possible scenarios for plant-based growth over the next 15 years: one scenario in which plant-based milk, meat, and eggs become slightly more popular than they currently are, and another scenario in which these products become considerably more common in shoppers’ carts. By comparing these scenarios against a baseline case in which plant-based products are consumed at the same levels as they are today, we can project how much the U.S. economy would be impacted by these changes in consumption habits. The results are important for advocates, policymakers, and other stakeholders to consider when determining how to approach a plant-based food transition.
Important Considerations
This report examines two hypothetical growth scenarios for the plant-based industry: one in which plant-based eating is moderately more common and one in which it is substantially more common. These scenarios are not meant to be interpreted as projections of what will happen. Instead, they are hypothetical examples of the range of possible growth outcomes and are meant to help inform the public about what the economic impacts of a plant-based shift could look like.
The analysis discussed in this report utilizes a simplified model of the U.S. economy. It does not consider international trade or changes in investments, subsidies, and prices. Additional information about the scenarios and assumptions used in this analysis can be found in the Method and Supplementary Materials sections of this report.
Key Findings
- More plants, more jobs. This report explores two scenarios for 2040: one in which plant-based foods become moderately more common in U.S. diets and one in which they become substantially more common. Under the assumptions of this analysis, our results suggest that shifting toward more plant-based eating could result in considerable job creation. A moderate growth scenario yields several thousand new jobs and a substantial growth scenario yields tens of thousands of new jobs — over 3% more than if animal agriculture maintained its current market share. In both scenarios, more plant-based eating corresponds to more job creation.
- A moderate shift toward plant-based foods would have small, but positive effects on the U.S. economy, while a more substantial shift would give the U.S. economy a noticeable boost. In the smaller of our two growth scenarios, the industries affected by a plant-based shift would contribute about 0.3% more to GDP, 0.2% more to total tax revenue, and 0.4% more to total labor income versus a baseline scenario. In a much more optimistic growth scenario, these industries would contribute 4% more to GDP, 2% more to total tax revenue, and 4% more to total labor income versus a baseline scenario. Despite the prevalence of animal products in U.S. diets, the continued dominance of animal agriculture is not integral to the health of the country’s economy. Indeed, this analysis predicts that the economy may perform better if the U.S. moved away from animal agriculture.
- Plant-based foods need to become much more common to see considerable economic benefits. Although jobs, GDP, and tax revenue all increase in a moderate growth scenario compared to their levels if plant-based foods remained at current levels of popularity, these changes are quite small. Our substantial growth scenario yields more notable growth. However, this scenario envisions plant-based milk, meat, and eggs all becoming multiple times more common in shoppers’ carts than they are today.
Recommendations
- Add economic gains to the list of benefits of a plant-based future. Many advocates understandably center their calls for plant-based eating around the welfare of animals. Other common arguments include environmental and health benefits. This study shows that plant-based eating can also help the economy. As a result, advocates should include job creation and economic growth in their pitches to omnivores.
- Conduct more research into the economic effects of plant-based eating. Although this report provides important insights into possible futures, it only scratches the surface. With additional modeling and projections, advocates can more successfully lobby government officials, craft informed policy proposals, and try to sway public opinion, especially for those who aren’t completely won over by traditional arguments in favor of plant-based diets. Researchers should explore alternative growth scenarios, specific local impacts of a plant-based transition, the role of global trade, countries other than the U.S., and the impact of increased financial support for plant-based eating from both the public and private sectors. Additional research should also measure the effectiveness of economic arguments for plant-based eating compared to other arguments like animal welfare. Advocates should also research ways of mitigating negative impacts on workers in industries affected by a plant-based transition, such as worker retraining.
- Fuel the plant-based transition. The growth scenarios explored in this report rely on plant-based products gaining market share at the expense of animal products. In order for this to occur at the scale necessary to realize considerable economic benefits, plant-based products need to become much more popular. Our substantial growth scenario looks at a future in which plant-based meats are just as common as plant-based milk is today and in which half of all milk purchases are plant-based. This means making significant inroads in U.S. diets, not just making plant-based items a bit more popular. As a result, advocates interested in seeing economic benefits should focus on making plant-based products available as widely as possible, both by expanding access to these products and by shifting social norms. In addition to campaigns promoting plant-based diets, advocates should lobby policymakers and business leaders to invest more in plant-based research and development in an effort to make plant-based products cheaper, tastier, and accessible. Researchers should also work to expand our understanding of how plant-based products can replace non-plant-based products.
- Ensure the economic transition to a plant-based economy is just by assisting workers. Although the growth scenarios analyzed in this report show net job gains, there will be some job loss in a shift to a more plant-based food system. Advocates should work with policymakers and businesses to determine ways of supporting workers who may be negatively impacted by a plant-based shift. This could include job training, resources for farmers, and locating new plant-based facilities in communities that had been economically reliant on animal agriculture.
Applying These Findings
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Behind The Project
Research Team
The primary analysis for this project was conducted by BW Research Partnership. Additional analysis and lead author on the report was Research Scientist Zach Wulderk (Faunalytics). Dr. Jo Anderson (Faunalytics) and Dr. Andie Thompkins (Mercy for Animals and Faunalytics) each reviewed and oversaw stages of the work.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank several advocates who provided valuable input about this research throughout the process. In particular, we would like to thank both the Good Food Institute and Animetrics for providing invaluable support throughout this project’s lifespan. We are grateful to the Food Systems Research Fund for their support.
Research Terminology
At Faunalytics, we strive to make research accessible to everyone. We avoid jargon and technical terminology as much as possible in our reports. If you do encounter an unfamiliar term or phrase, check out the Faunalytics Glossary for user-friendly definitions and examples.
Research Ethics Statement
As with all of Faunalytics’ original research, this study was conducted according to the standards outlined in our Research Ethics and Data Handling Policy.
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Citations:
Wulderk, Z. (2025). The Economic Impacts Of A Plant-Based Transition: Exploring Two Growth Scenarios. Faunalytics. https://faunalytics.org/plant-based-economic-impacts/
