This paper proposes a method for defining goals and objectives, selecting and implementing mitigation actions, and monitoring feedback within a mathematical model that adjusts for uncertainties created by limited data. Managing wild amphibians on National Park Service lands near Washington, D.C. in the face of difficult to predict impacts from climate change, urbanization, and other human-instigated habitat challenges is presented as a case study of the technique. The authors advocate this proactive approach as preferable to waiting to take action until a significant population decline in a species is noted.

[Abstract excerpted from original text.]

“Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision-making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short-term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information.”