A widely accepted model of the relationship between socioeconomic and dietary change proposes that there are four stages, progressing from hunter-gatherer societies through to the calorie-dense and highly processed diets we see in the Global North today. Yet, a more recent gradual increase in alternative protein production and individuals choosing veg*n diets suggests there’s a potential fifth stage. In this expanded model, alternative proteins might make up an even greater proportion of the Global North’s protein consumption in the future, and this report explores what might happen in sub-Saharan Africa by extension.

Focused on financial investment in protein production in sub-Saharan Africa, the report aimed to discover who exactly invests in protein production in the region, which particular protein products and production systems they invest in, what their investment goals are, and their expectations for the future of food in sub-Saharan Africa. It looked at proteins coming from animal-derived products; crops like beans and pulses and derivatives like tofu; and alternative proteins produced from plants, insects, micro-organisms like fungi, and tissue cultures.

Protein production in the region has grown rapidly in recent decades, especially animal-derived proteins, which are mainly produced by pastoralists and smallholder farms. Chicken and pork production has risen the most, roughly tripling between 1990 and 2020, while whole milk, beef, sheep meat, and egg production has roughly doubled over the same time frame.

Despite this growth, it’s thought that protein production might not keep up with consumption. Protein consumption in the region is low by global standards. While sub-Saharan Africa has 14% of the world’s population, it represents only 4% of global meat, 5% of global dairy, and 6% of global fish consumption. This is partly because the region’s protein mostly comes from foods like wheat, maize, and millet, which are normally categorized as carbohydrates. However, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is growing substantially, with an expected increase of 31% (329 million people) by 2030. Taken together, this lower consumption of protein (especially from animal-derived products) along with the growth of the population has led to concerns about malnourishment.

More recently, there have also been environmental concerns about the impact of increased animal protein production needed to keep up with the region’s population growth. Many expect the ‘protein gap’ to be filled by a shift from small-scale outdoor rearing of animals to more intensive indoor farming systems, as already established in South Africa and Nigeria. If so, sub-Saharan Africa’s expected expansion in animal protein production will mean an extra 21% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

To better understand sub-Saharan Africa’s protein landscape, data for the report was gathered in two phases. Firstly, the author conducted a ‘desk review’ of publicly available reports to determine which investors provide the largest amount of financial support for protein production in the region. These included academic works, as well as reports from international food policy organizations like the United Nations Development Programme and financial institutions like the World Bank. For the second phase, the author conducted interviews with nineteen experts in the sector, either from or linked to the investors who were identified in the previous phase.

Several trends were established from the desk research:

• The vast majority of investment in global agriculture comes from government spending and agricultural credit provided by banks. However, sub-Saharan Africa receives only a fraction of this funding relative to its population size — in 2019, about 4% ($5.7 billion) and 1% ($12 billion) from these sources, respectively.
• As the world’s largest recipient of Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) investment in agriculture, sub-Saharan Africa received 35% of global ODA spending in 2019. However, this amounted to only $4.3 billion, revealing that ODA investment is still lower than the other sources mentioned above.
• In 2019, private sector finance accounted for only about 6% of total investment in African agriculture, suggesting that it also plays a smaller role.

The interviews gave important insight into those who actually do invest in protein in sub-Saharan Africa. While everyone interviewed expected serious growth in demand for protein in the region, and therefore the need for investment, they didn’t necessarily agree on the route that growth should take. The author identified three types of investor groups, who each had a different “vision” for the future: Smallholder Intensification, Protein for Profit, and Protein Diversification.

Smallholder Intensification

Smallholder Intensification is the goal of development finance institutions, philanthropic organizations, and impact funds. Investment is made to reduce poverty and malnutrition and to support sustainable development in the region, especially among smallholder farmers and pastoralists. The specific protein products and production systems invested in are mostly farmed chickens, eggs, dairy, and fish, which are viewed as less environmentally damaging than other animal-derived proteins. Key areas that are benefited by investment are suppliers of feed, medicines, and higher-yield breeds of animals. The report notes that this may be the largest investment type in the region, given the prominence of development investment in sub-Saharan Africa.

Protein For Profit

Though there’s some overlap with the vision outlined above, Protein for Profit is mainly held by private equity funds and commercial banks looking for competitive rates of financial return. Given the risks of political instability, volatile animal feed costs, and competition from imported protein products, much of the sector in sub-Saharan Africa is seen as too risky an investment. These investors focus on farmed chickens and eggs because of the relatively short life cycles of the animals, reducing the level of investment risk. They also focus on wealthier countries like South Africa, which have established food retail and restaurant chains.

Protein Diversification

Protein Diversification is a vision held by a small group of venture capital investors in alternative proteins, mainly plant-based meats and milks. These investors are based in Europe and North America. They are motivated less than others by financial return and more by environmental and ethical concerns. By investing in alternative protein manufacturers, they hope to limit the expansion of animal agriculture and reduce the costs of alternative proteins to make them price-competitive. Other investors would either see the products or the region, if not both together, as too risky, but these investors have a green and ethical future firmly in mind.

Unfortunately, those adhering to the Protein Diversification vision have only a limited amount of capital to invest and African alternative proteins don’t gain funding from virtually anywhere else. Furthermore, no investors seem to be financing the cultivation of protein-rich crops such as beans and legumes for human consumption. Thus, the report concludes that protein production investment in sub-Saharan Africa mostly focuses on animal-derived proteins.

There were a number of limitations mentioned in the report. Firstly, given the limited amount of publicly available data, the author studied investment into the wider African agriculture, food, and fisheries sector on the basis that this could be reflective of the investment into protein production. However, the author also found that funding provided by philanthropic organizations and national governments may be allocated to projects like regional economic development or gender equality rather than protein production itself, so this needs to be taken into consideration. For the interviews, the number of people representing the different investor groups was small due to time and budget constraints and therefore the feedback can’t be seen as statistically representative of all investors. Additionally, the focus on this region alone means that it’s unknown how reflective the three investment visions identified are of the Global South more generally.

Overall, the report shows that investment in protein production in sub-Saharan Africa remains concentrated on animal-derived proteins, operating under the assumption that this is how an increased demand for protein from a growing population will be satisfied. However, the research also highlights the importance of offering an alternative vision. Increasing investment in alternative proteins has the potential to hasten a shift towards a more ethical and greener food future.