Will Plant-Based Burgers Replace Beef In The Long Term?
The newest generation of plant-based meat alternatives is a far cry from the original meat pretenders. Products such as those from Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods look, cook, and taste like beef. There were high hopes that consumers would reduce their meat consumption in favor of these new creations, especially as prices became more competitive. Not only would this reduce animal suffering, but the shift could lower the amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG’s) from animal agriculture. But is that optimism warranted? Or will people instead add these new foods to an already meat-heavy diet?
Using economic modeling, researchers in this study examined this question. They created a set of equations that linked U.S. beef production to U.S. beef consumption. They then varied the price or demand for plant-based meat to observe the effects on the demand and supply of meat and cows, effects on beef imports and exports, and changes in GHG emissions. Consumption included both domestic production and imports of ground and non-ground beef. Supply included beef used in the domestic market along with foreign exports.
For animal advocates, the results may be disheartening. For every 10% reduction in plant-based meat prices, demand for these products increases 23%. However, U.S. beef and cow prices fall less than 1%, and cow production falls just .15%. The excess cattle go to the export market, while consumers simply add plant-based meat to their diets rather than substituting it for animal meat. Cow producers’ economic welfare drops by $300 million per year. This includes losses to ranchers, packers and farm and ranch suppliers. However, this loss equates to just .6% of average 2018-2020 cow revenue.
Consumers benefit by $513 million, but again this is only .45% of 2018-2020 outlays for beef. And unfortunately, when U.S. consumers do buy less beef, this doesn’t necessarily translate to fewer cows taken to slaughter. Indeed, in 2020, 12.2% of domestic beef consumption was imported, and 10.8% of beef produced in the U.S. was exported. Accordingly, model results showed the small excess supply created from declines in plant-based meat prices shifted to exports. However, since U.S. cow production is more efficient than the global average, this does lead to small reductions in GHG’s and agricultural land use.
While the news here isn’t good, it’s plausible that the model predictions will not hold up. Plant-based meats are still quite new, and production is such that prices are still high. As prices come down and chicken and fish products enter the market, hopefully consumer behavior will change. Advocates can use these results as a warning sign that shows we still have much work to do in educating consumers about plant-based meats and their benefits to animals and the environment.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4fda