The Future Market Share Of Animal-Free Cheese
In recent years, scientists have developed animal-free dairy that’s better for animals and the environment. In some cases, they use genetically engineered bacteria to produce dairy proteins like casein and whey that can be mixed with fats, carbohydrates, and salt and processed into cheese. This animal-free dairy cheese promises to taste identical to conventional cheese without the animal suffering and GHG emissions.
Although such cheese isn’t yet available in stores, this study examined the future market share of animal-free dairy cheese in the United Kingdom. Over 1,200 U.K. residents completed a survey and performed choice tasks related to buying mozzarella cheese. Every choice task had six different purchase options in a range of prices: animal-free dairy cheese, plant-based cheese, three types of animal-based cheese, and the option not to purchase any cheese. The price of animal-free dairy cheese is currently unknown, so the authors explored whether people would buy it if it were priced similarly, or higher, to the other products (which were valued around market price).
The participants learned about the production process and the benefits of animal-free dairy before taking the survey. 65% of people stated that they probably or definitely would buy animal-free dairy cheese, while just 14% said they probably or definitely wouldn’t.
The survey showed that the market share of animal-free dairy cheese heavily depends on the price. If animal-free dairy cheese is introduced at the same price as premium cheese (£2.42 per 200g), it is expected to capture a one-third market share for cheese. However, if the cheese is priced at £7.00 per 200g, its market share would fall sharply to 0.09%. More than 75% of those who chose animal-free dairy cheese in the experiment would have otherwise bought animal-based cheese. By far the biggest loss of market share was seen for premium animal-based cheese, while basic animal-based cheeses were more stable.
The researchers also analyzed the market if plant-based cheese is included as an option. Without animal-free dairy, animal-based cheese sales drop by 7%. Introducing animal-free cheese as another option further decreases the market share for animal-based cheese by another 14%. Meanwhile, sales of plant-based cheese would drop by 2.5%.
Because of these results, the authors suggest that animal-free cheese is attractive to people who regularly consume animal-based products. Further evidence of this claim comes from the fact that vegans, vegetarians, and flexitarians were significantly more likely to consume plant-based cheese, but not animal-free dairy cheese.
The third part of the survey looked at taxing the GHG emissions from farmed animals. Currently, no country in the world implements this tax, although the concept is gaining support. The authors hypothesized that this tax could raise the prices of animal-based cheese in the U.K. by as much as £0.25 per 200g. Despite the tax, only a few consumers moved away from animal-based cheese when animal-free dairy cheese was not an option.
When animal-free dairy cheese was offered, the amount of consumers parting with animal-based cheese due to the tax increased by 80%. Also, 20% more consumers wouldn’t purchase any cheese at all. Thus, animal-free dairy cheese could make a GHG emissions tax more efficient and might increase public acceptance.
Although these findings are promising, advocates should be aware that the study was conducted by an animal-free dairy producer. Likewise, participants were informed that animal-free dairy cheese tastes just like animal-based cheese — however, this still needs to be determined, as the products aren’t available yet. Another issue is the possible difference between a hypothetical experiment and real-life choices.
Nevertheless, the data suggest that given competitive pricing, cultivated products might have a strong chance of competing with dairy products. Animal advocates should focus on educating consumers about these products and their benefits so that the public will be more open to trying them when they become a reality.