Global demand for animal-based foods has increased substantially in recent decades as part of the nutrition transition in many countries. This shift has been linked to both positive and negative effects on human health and the environment. While these foods can provide important nutrients and support livelihoods, their production and consumption have also been associated with increased risks of certain diseases and significant environmental impacts. Given these widespread and multidimensional effects, it’s crucial to understand how factors like income, prices, and consumer preferences may influence future demand for foods from farmed animals.

A study conducted by an international team of researchers aimed to predict how demand for ‘livestock-derived’ foods might evolve between 2020 and 2050 under different scenarios. These foods include beef, sheep and goat meat, pork, poultry, dairy milk, and eggs.

The researchers used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), a global economic model, to simulate various “what-if” scenarios based on different trajectories for population growth, income growth, and changes in consumer preferences.

The IMPACT model incorporated data on population and income growth from three of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) — narratives used to explore how global society, demographics, and economics might change in the future:

• SSP1: A relatively optimistic scenario with higher income growth and lower population growth
• SSP2: A “middle-of-the-road” scenario
• SSP3: A more pessimistic scenario with lower income growth and higher population growth

The researchers also examined scenarios where the income elasticity of demand for red meat (a measure of how demand responds to changes in income) declined over time, either globally or just in high-income countries. This allowed them to explore how changes in consumer preferences might affect future demand.

The study projects that under the middle-range SSP2 scenario, global demand for protein from livestock-derived foods will increase by 14% per person and 38% in total between 2020 and 2050. The fastest growth in per-person demand is expected in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, with increases of 49% and 55% respectively, though starting from lower initial levels than other regions.

In high-income countries, red meat demand is particularly sensitive to changes in income growth and consumer preferences. If the income elasticity of demand for red meat in these countries declines by 100% by 2050, per-person demand would decrease by roughly 3% compared to 2020 levels. However, if this decline occurs globally, per-person red meat demand in high-income countries would paradoxically increase by about 9%, due to the effect of lower global prices outweighing reduced income responsiveness.

The research highlights complex interactions between income, prices, and consumer preferences in shaping future demand. For instance, slower global income growth can reduce demand in some regions, leading to lower global prices that may increase demand in price-sensitive markets. The study also projects that high-income countries’ share of global red meat protein demand will decrease from 31% in 2020 to 26% in 2050 under the SSP2 scenario.

Additional insights include:

• The researchers note that substantial changes in consumer preferences would be needed to see significant reductions in per-person demand for livestock-derived foods, particularly in high-income countries.
• The study demonstrates the importance of considering price effects when projecting future food demand. Changes in global demand can have significant impacts on prices, which in turn affect consumption patterns.
• The research complements existing literature on food systems and global change by providing quantitative evidence about possible future demand scenarios for livestock-derived foods.

The authors acknowledge some limitations of their study. They didn’t separate out specific products or cuts of meat, for instance, but analyzed commodities like ‘beef’ or ‘pork’ as a whole, yet demand for cuts perceived as low or high quality may very well be different. They also recognize the ongoing need for improved estimation of elasticities.

These findings have important implications for human health, environmental sustainability, and global food systems. Understanding potential trajectories for animal-based food demand can help policymakers, health professionals, and environmental scientists better prepare for and potentially influence future consumption patterns. Although animal advocates may be discouraged by the thought of a future with more meat, eggs, and dairy, the complex interactions between income, prices, and consumer preferences highlighted in this study underscore the need for nuanced approaches when considering interventions to shape future food demand.