Will Cultured Meat Be Widely Available By 2050?
The concept of cultured (or “lab-grown”) meat provides hope that the world could give up factory farming without giving up meat. However, along with opportunities, this emerging industry faces technological and economic challenges. Understanding the likelihood and timeline of producing cultured meat for general consumers can inform what steps animal advocates need to take in the near and long term.
What “success” in the cultured meat industry means depends on the perspectives of the individual stakeholders. For example, financially motivated investors might view cultured meat as successful if they make a profit from it, even if the actual production volume is low. However, animal advocates may view cultured meat as a failure if it’s produced in such low volumes that it doesn’t impact factory farming. In this report, the authors define success based on cultured meat’s ability to significantly decrease animal suffering.
Researchers from Rethink Priorities asked a panel of forecasters and a cultured meat expert to weigh in on whether cultured meat will reach specific production, research, and funding milestones within certain timeframes (by the year 2031, 2036, or 2051). The panelists worked alone, and their estimates were aggregated. The authors aim to provide insight into some of the challenges and uncertainties that the cultured meat industry is likely to face over the coming decades.
The panel believed it’s 54% likely that less than 100,000 metric tons of cultured meat will be produced and sold annually by 2051, and 9% likely that more than 50 million metric tons will be produced annually in that timeframe. For context, 545 million metric tons of meat (including seafood) were produced worldwide in 2020.
The table below shows the forecasted production volumes by the years 2031, 2036, and 2051:
Adding the condition that cultured meat must cost less than $10 per kilogram decreased the panelists’ estimates that cultured meat will reach the above production targets. For example, the production and sale of cultured meat exceeding 100,000 metric tons in 2031 had an aggregate probability of 15% at any price. However, when the researchers gave forecasters the stipulation that cultured meat must cost less than $10 per kilogram, the aggregate probability declined to 6%.
Another topic the authors asked about is scientific expertise in the cultured meat industry. The forecasters, on average, estimated about even chances (52%) that there will be more than 250 PhDs and scientists researching cultured meat by 2036. On the sales side, the forecasters found it unlikely that a prominent discount store chain (e.g., Walmart) would sell generic-brand cultured meat by 2031’s end (8% probability), or that a well-known U.S. fast food restaurant (e.g., Burger King) would have a cultured meat option on the menu (16% probability).
Based on the panel’s forecasts, the authors argue that the timeframe to reach significant production milestones is more likely to be closer to a century, not a few decades. However, some factors could increase the likelihood of cultured meat hitting production milestones, such as a prominent billionaire’s public and financial support, or the effective altruism community working on targeted grants (such as funding PhD research). The authors also point to political support and future technological advances, such as advanced bioreactors, cell engineering innovations, and less expensive amino acid production, as a way to advance the industry.
In general, the authors believe that longer-term strategies to support the cultured meat industry may be more useful than assuming a “small nudge” will propel the industry to widespread commercial adoption. In the meantime, animal advocates can also promote other alternatives to factory-farmed meat, such as plant-based meat and legislative changes to reduce animal cruelty.