The Social Impacts Of Alternative Meats: An International Perspective

Alternatives to meat from slaughtered animals have increased dramatically in the past few decades. Plant-based substitutes for meat have become mainstream in many countries, especially when it comes to plant-based burgers. Meanwhile, cultivated recreations of animal meat from cells are a newer technology, currently approved for sale in Singapore, the U.S., and Australia.

While the possibilities for food system transformation are incredibly exciting, it’s important to look ahead and anticipate how food producers and consumers in different countries may be affected. This study presents expert perspectives from Brazil, the U.S., Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands. Researchers surveyed 136 people with involvement in alternative or conventional meat chains. These experts held a range of positions, from industry professionals and academic researchers to non-profit employees and government regulators.

The survey covered five themes: market expectations, consumer access, consumer acceptance, impacts on farms, and business opportunities. For each theme, experts indicated their agreement with relevant statements on a five-point Likert scale.

Market Expectations

More than half of experts expected high consumer demand for plant-based meat (69%) as well as for cultivated meat (54%). Additionally, 39% of experts expected that cultivated meat will have a 35% share of the meat market by 2040, while 65% said the same about plant-based meat reaching its predicted 25% share by 2040. Experts from Brazil and the U.S. were more optimistic about market demand for cultivated meat compared to experts from Europe.

Consumer Access

Experts were asked to predict when ordinary people with lower incomes will be able to afford cultivated meat: less than a quarter (23.5%) of experts expected this access within 10 years, while half (50%) expected this access within 20 years.

This future relies on cultivated meat production becoming cheaper and more efficient over time, which partly depends on favorable public policies. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of experts agreed or strongly agreed that the price of cultivated meat is a challenge, compared to 59% having the same concern about plant-based meat. Considering whether incomes in their countries will be too low to afford cultivated meat, Brazilian experts had less optimism than European experts in this case only.

Most experts (73%) agreed or strongly agreed that cultivated meats should be a solution to food security for the growing human population.

Consumer Acceptance

In past research, 50% to 70% of consumers have expressed willingness to try cultivated meat. The experts in this study were less optimistic, with only about 44% predicting that cultivated meat will have high levels of consumer acceptance in their countries. It’s not surprising, then, that more than half (59%) expected that plant-based meat will be more accepted than cultivated meat. The authors note that this prediction may change as cultivated meat becomes more common.

Slightly over half (53%) of experts believed that cultivated meat will be healthier than conventional meat, with those from Brazil expressing the most optimism.

Impacts On Farms

Most experts (76%) disagreed or strongly disagreed that animal farms of all sizes will experience the same effects from cultivated meat entering the market. Some past research has suggested that large farms will be impacted first because they’re poorly diversified, while other studies indicate that small farms will be worse off because they’re less able to compete in a more limited market.

Expert agreement ranged from 43% to 47% when it came to predictions that alternative proteins will bring opportunities for farmers to switch to other activities in meat production or to join alternative meat supply chains. More experts believed cultivated meat will create a challenge for animal producers compared to plant-based meat (57% versus 48%). Overall, experts from Brazil were less concerned that alternative meats will negatively impact animal producers in their country, compared to those from the U.S. and Europe. The authors note that Brazil’s stronger ties to conventional meat and the cheap price of animal products may mean the transition to alternative proteins will be slower, making it less threatening.

The majority (87.5%) of experts predicted resistance to alternative meats from animal producer associations and unions. Experts from Brazil were more optimistic that this resistance will decrease as time passes and new business opportunities arise.

Business Opportunities

The vast majority (93%) of experts predicted that cultivated meat will bring new business opportunities to their countries, with significantly higher optimism among Brazilian experts. A similarly high percentage (88%) made these same predictions about plant-based meat. When asked about whether there will be business opportunities for the conventional meat industry specifically, most experts agreed for both cultivated (85%) and plant-based (87%) meat.

The authors emphasize that public policies are needed to support research on nutrition and safety, create clear regulations, and help conventional meat producers transition to other food production activities. Of course, these survey results are opinions from people currently working in the field, and they’re about a future that hasn’t happened yet, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Additionally, there’s a need for more studies on other parts of the world and on how alternative meats might affect small-scale farmers specifically.

Animal advocates can use these results as a jumping-off point for deeper discussions on how alternative proteins may affect different groups of people and different countries. These discussions may involve taking the time to talk to small-scale farmers and other groups who are most likely to experience negative effects from the transition. While the experts surveyed in this study — especially those from Brazil — are optimistic overall, advocates would benefit from thinking ahead and proposing policy solutions that make alternative proteins sustainable not only for the planet, but for societies and their economies as well.